In an attempt to wrest the initiative of being pro-OBC from the opposition parties, the BJP-led central government had announced that caste-based enumeration would be included in the next census. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnav, while giving information about this decision of the government taken in the meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs, had said recently that the caste-based census would be conducted along with the next census. It is worth mentioning that many opposition parties including Congress, Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal are continuously demanding a caste census in the country. Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi has been accusing the government of hesitating to conduct a caste census many times.
This surprising decision has come during an explosive situation – after the Pahalgam terrorist attack, the country is expecting strong action from the government against Pakistan. However, the BJP has shown that even national security interests cannot force it to forget about electoral priorities and its current goal is to win the Bihar assembly elections to be held this year; and another major objective is to drive the Congress and other opposition parties out of the caste politics arena across the country. The Congress and other opposition parties have been demanding a caste-based census for a long time. Even now, they are claiming that the government has taken this decision under pressure from the opposition parties. The opposition parties have now demanded a deadline for it.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had tried to simplify the matter in December 2023 by saying that there are only four ‘major’ castes – women, youth, farmers and the poor. The BJP, which is running with full confidence in the power of polarization, allowed the opposition to play the caste card; However, its poor performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections opened its eyes, when the BJP was able to form the government only after taking the support of Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP). Not surprisingly, the constraints of the alliance have had a major impact on its decision on the caste-based census. Pressure from the Congress and other opposition parties has also played a major role. For now, it is necessary to fix the timeline for the census, which has already been significantly delayed.
Benefits or harms of caste-based census for Sikhs
A caste-based census can bring out the exact number and socio-economic status of specific castes of the Sikh community (such as Jat Sikhs, Ramgarhia, Majhbi Sikhs, Khatri, etc.). This can help government schemes, reservations, and social welfare programs reach the marginalized sections of the Sikh society in a more targeted manner. Accurate information about the different castes of the Sikh community can help political parties improve their election strategies, which can give more prominence to the demands of the Sikhs (agriculture, Sikh cultural issues, and economic assistance). Data on the socio-economic status of religious Sikhs and other backward castes can help the government formulate specific policies for their upliftment.
Sikhism opposes casteism and emphasizes equality. A caste-based census may increase caste discrimination or division in the Sikh community, which is against the principles of Sikhism. Caste data of Sikhs can be misused by political parties, which can divide the Sikh community and use it as a vote bank. During the collection of caste data, some sections of the Sikh community may fear their identity being made public, which can increase social tension.
Which political party will benefit from the census?
The BJP has tried to undermine the pro-OBC strategy of the opposition parties (especially the Congress) by announcing a caste-based census. The move could help the BJP strengthen its vote bank, especially in states like Bihar, where caste equations play a key role in elections. The government is presenting the move as a commitment to social justice, which could increase the BJP’s grip on the OBC, SC, and ST communities. Potential downside: If the census data is not used transparently or caste tensions increase, the BJP could suffer political losses. Especially in Punjab and other Sikh-majority areas, where Sikh principles oppose casteism, the BJP’s move could be seen as promoting casteism, which could increase opposition from Sikh voters. Moreover, if the figures show a majority of OBCs or other backward classes, it could create resentment among the BJP’s traditional upper-caste vote bank (like Rajputs, Brahmins).
What will Congress and other opposition parties gain?
The Congress and other opposition parties (like Samajwadi Party, RJD) have been demanding a caste-based census for a long time. They are presenting this decision as a victory for their pressure. If the figures are used to strengthen social justice and reservation policies, the Congress and its allies could gain support from OBC, SC, and ST voters. The opposition parties could gain political advantage, especially in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh, where caste equations are important. If the BJP successfully presents this census as its social justice initiative, the Congress and opposition parties’ strategy of caste politics could be undermined.
Parties like the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab, which represents the Sikh community, use caste-based data to specifically target Sikhs.
to demand policies for the welfare of castes (especially backward castes). Parties like JDU in Bihar and TDP in Andhra Pradesh may also benefit from the political strength of OBCs and backward classes, as they are part of the BJP coalition government.
Parties like Akali Dal may face the challenge of balancing the anti-caste message of Sikh principles. If the caste census creates divisions in the Sikh community, the Akali Dal’s political reputation may suffer.
The BJP may get an opportunity to strengthen the OBC vote bank in states like Bihar, but may face resistance from Sikh majority areas and upper-caste voters. The Congress and the opposition parties may gain strength in the fight for social justice, but they will have to be vigilant to thwart the political maneuvering of the BJP. Akali Dal and regional parties: These parties can use caste data to strengthen their vote bank, but will also face the challenge of maintaining the unity of the Sikh community. The success and political impact of this census will depend on the transparency of the data, implementation of government policies, and social awareness.
