There is currently a two-way conversation about the status of India’s economy. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi claim that India has surpassed Japan to become the world’s fourth largest economy. NITI Aayog CEO VBR Subramanian also reiterated this and said that India’s nominal GDP has now surpassed Japan. But in the eyes of international organizations and foreign leaders, India is still the fifth largest economy. Data from organizations like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank also confirm that India’s economy is still in fifth place after the US, China, Germany and Japan. NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani had also suggested that the data should be confirmed by the end of the year. This clearly shows that while the BJP’s claim is to warm up the domestic political atmosphere, it has not yet been fully accepted at the international level.
The BJP’s claim is mainly based on nominal GDP figures. NITI Aayog CEO Subramanian said that India’s nominal GDP has reached around $4.1 trillion in the financial year 2024-25, surpassing Japan’s $4.0 trillion economy. Along with this, the Modi government’s policies, such as ‘Make in India’, Digital India and infrastructure development, are also being credited for this achievement. Prime Minister Modi and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath have been promoting it on social media, calling it a major success. But figures from international organisations do not yet confirm this. According to the World Bank and the IMF, India’s economy is still behind Japan, and India is third in terms of purchasing power parity, but fifth in nominal GDP. The BJP is also stressing that India can overtake Germany in the next three years, which seems to be a political propaganda.
Internationally, India is still seen as the fifth largest economy. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney invited India as the guest country at the G-7 summit. He attributed India’s importance to three reasons: India’s importance in the global supply chain, the largest population and the fifth largest economy. International newspapers, such as the BBC and the Financial Times, have also shown India as the fifth largest economy. A BBC report quoted the World Bank as saying that India’s economy is growing rapidly, but it may take time to completely overtake Japan. Japanese media, such as the Asahi Shimbun, also gave headlines to Modi’s claims, but based on IMF data, gave India the fifth position. It is clear from this that the international community is not yet fully in agreement to consider India as the fourth largest economy.
As per the advice of Arvind Virmani of NITI Aayog, the figures must be confirmed by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the view of international institutions and leaders shows India as the fifth largest economy. There is a difference between political propaganda and the reality of the figures, and it is clear that India has not yet officially become the fourth largest economy.
Talking about India’s economy, two things are heard these days. On the one hand, BJP leaders, like Modi ji and Yogi ji, say very loudly that India has overtaken Japan and snatched the fourth position. But on the other hand, big institutions of the world and foreign leaders still consider India to be the fifth largest economy. The Prime Minister of Canada, while inviting India to the G-7, clearly said that India is the fifth largest economy. Talking about figures, the IMF and the World Bank say that India is still behind Japan. The BJP’s claim seems more like political glitz, but the real truth will come out only after the data is verified.
