The Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, has won the 2025 Canadian federal election for the fourth time, defeating the Conservative Pierre Polivre and the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh. This victory is significant from the perspective of India-Canada relations. In the Canadian federal election, the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, won for the fourth time, winning 91 seats with 50.6% of the vote. The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Polivre, won 61 seats with 38.8% of the vote. US President Donald Trump’s controversial comments on making Canada the 51st state of the United States and threats of tariffs have raised nationalist sentiments among Canadian voters, which has created an atmosphere in favor of the Liberal Party. Mark Carney, who has previously been the governor of the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, has attracted voters with his global economic expertise.
Jagmeet Singh, the leader of the Indian-origin New Democratic Party (NDP), won only 8.4% of the vote. His party gained some seats, but the NDP’s influence remained limited in the tight Liberal-Conservative race.
Analysts believe that India-Canada relations could warm up under Mark Carney compared to Justin Trudeau’s tenure. Tensions between the two countries over the Khalistanis increased during Trudeau’s time. Carney’s policies may be more neutral and economically focused, but India’s concerns about Khalistani supporters will remain. Bhai Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian Sikh leader and leader associated with the Khalistan movement, was murdered in Surrey, British Columbia, in June 2023. Former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had alleged possible involvement of the Indian government in the case, which India strongly denied. In November 2024, the Canadian government admitted that it had no evidence of direct involvement of senior Indian officials, such as Narendra Modi or Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar. Mark Carney’s government is likely to try not to escalate the issue further, as it is prioritizing improving relations. However, it may be difficult to completely drop the issue due to Canada’s Sikh community and political pressure. But resolving the issue of justice in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijhar is not easy.
Remember that trade relations between India and Canada have been strong in the energy, agriculture, and technology sectors. Carney’s economic policies emphasizing global trade and stability could boost trade with India. However, Trump’s tariffs and their impact on the Canadian economy could also affect India’s exports. India will need to further strengthen its diplomatic strategy with Canada.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also congratulated Carney and the Liberal Party on their victory, which is a positive sign. Under Carney’s leadership, there could be work to improve relations, especially in terms of increasing trade and economic cooperation. It should be remembered that the US has played a moderate mediating role in the India-Canada tensions. During the 2023 G-20 summit, US President Joe Biden tried to bring Justin Trudeau and Narendra Modi together for talks. India is an important strategic partner for the US, especially in the context of China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Also, the US also has close relations with Canada. Therefore, the US will likely encourage both countries to engage in dialogue and cooperation.
India-Canada relations are likely to improve under the Liberal Party’s victory and Mark Carney’s leadership, but the Hardeep Singh Nijjar issue is unlikely to be resolved.
