The election bell has rung in the eastern state of Bihar. The Election Commission has announced voting in two phases on November 6 and 11, while the results will be announced on November 14. Political experts believe that these elections can change the political climate of the entire country. These results will have an impact on states like Assam, Kerala, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry in 2026. After that, elections will also be held in Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Goa and Manipur in 2027. Whichever of the NDA or the India alliance wins in Bihar, that alliance will be able to create its own atmosphere at the national level. According to political analysts, the results of Bihar will also highlight the internal tension between the BJP and the RSS. Political experts say that if the BJP wins, then the will of Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah will prevail; otherwise, the will of the RSS will prevail.
There is a direct fight between the NDA and the grand alliance, but Prashant Kishor’s Jan Swaraj Party is creating a third angle. This time there is also a big tussle over the votes of Dalits, while issues like unemployment, migration and social justice remain the center of discussion.
The announcement of seat sharing in the NDA for the Bihar assembly elections has come as a big blow to Nitish, who has always been seen as the elder brother in the alliance. Nitish has now lost this status. With this announcement made last Sunday, the BJP has given an equal place to Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United (JDU) – both have got 101 seats each. It may be recalled that in 2020, the JDU had got 115 seats and the BJP 110 seats, but now the BJP has shown its strategic strength by ending Nitish’s dominance. This has created a new balance in the alliance as smaller leaders like Chirag Paswan also got more seats. Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) was given 29 seats, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) 6 and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha 6 seats.
According to political experts, this setback is strategic for Nitish. In 2020, JDU had contested 115 seats and won 43, while BJP had contested 110 and won 74. JDU’s vote share was 15.39%, while BJP’s had 19.46%. BJP also sent a message through seat sharing that an NDA government in Bihar means a BJP-led government. Nitish has been dealt a blow at a time when he is battling factions in his party – one faction is with him, but the other is moving towards the BJP. The BJP used this faction to appease Nitish. This split is being seen as the beginning of the end of Nitish’s 20-year rule.
Analysts say that Nitish is going through a bad time – his party’s win rate has come down and votes are also slipping. The BJP has turned this opportunity into an advantage and given a message to its workers that Nitish’s era is over. This has led to disappointment among JDU workers, which could psychologically damage the party.
In addition, smaller parties have also been reduced in the NDA. Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM had got 7 seats in 2020 (out of which it won 4), but now only 6. This is also a big setback for a leader close to Nitish. By withdrawing Upendra Kushwaha, the BJP has strengthened its strategy, which was earlier in the opposition alliance and could not open its account even after contesting on 104 seats.
Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) has strengthened its position with 29 seats. In 2020, Chirag separated from the NDA and contested on 135 seats and won only one, but his candidates defeated more than 30 of Nitish’s candidates. This was an ‘anti-Nitish’ strategy, which caused a big loss to JDU. Now with Chirag’s return, BJP has kept him happy by giving him 29 seats, but this is a challenge for Nitish.
There is a tussle over seats in the grand alliance too. Congress is demanding more seats. Congress has finalized the names of 25 candidates in its strongest areas. Communist Party of India has also staked its claim on 40 seats. Last time, they won 12 out of 19 seats. Vikashil Insan Party has also sought 30 seats.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Swaraj Party is taking on a new look. In the last two years, they have undertaken a Bihar Change Yatra, covering over 5,000 km and reaching 5,500 villages. They released the first list on October 9, which had 51 candidates. Kishor is influencing the youth and is emphasizing on governance, education and clean politics. According to analysts, he will mainly harm the grand alliance.
The main issues this time are very deep. Bihar is still the most backward state in the country. Per capita income is the lowest, the number of illiterates is the highest and health facilities are in a poor condition. Industries are on the decline and old Chinese factories have also closed. Education and job opportunities are few in Bihar. Due to this, migration from Bihar is the highest. Students are fleeing to Delhi and other universities, while people are going from Punjab to Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu for jobs. Prashant Kishor is also trying to win the youth over by raising these issues. To prevent these issues from becoming a big issue in the elections, Nitish Kumar, with the help of the Modi government, has opened the treasury. From ten thousand rupees in the accounts of women to unemployment allowance for the youth, money for farmers and old people
